A Critique of the Contingent Claims Approach to Sovereign Risk Analysis

Autor: Rahmi Erdem Aktug, Tolga Han Seyhan
Rok vydání: 2011
Předmět:
Zdroj: SSRN Electronic Journal.
ISSN: 1556-5068
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1788683
Popis: In this study, I examine the Contingent Claims Approach (CCA) to measure sovereign risk. Specifically, I extend the study by Gray et al. (2007), and apply the CCA framework to three emerging markets, Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey over the period 2001 to 2010. I find that CCA underestimates credit default swap spreads and default probabilities. Consequently, I point out the shortcomings of CCA, and suggest some remedies.
Databáze: OpenAIRE