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The purpose of this thesis is to demonstrate, in principle, that the Early Entry Theater Level Model (EETLM) has potential for future use as a theater combat model. EETLM is a direct descendant of the Future Theater Level Model (FTLM) developed under the direction of the Joint Staff (J-8, Conventional Forces Directorate), and the U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC). A stochastic vice deterministic model, EETLM focuses on the joint aspect of theater combat operations, with particular emphasis on the effect that the early entry of Naval and Maritime Prepositioning ships (MPS) has on the outcome of a North Korean MRC scenario. EETLM utilizes Bayesian update procedures to imitate a level of uncertainty that is characterized by the "fog of war" and is commonplace in modern military operations. Urilizing a notional order of battle for both Blue and Red forces (ground, air and naval) multiple scenario runs were performed using three possible courses of actions for both Red and Blue, and three potential entry cases for Blue: entry prior to the outbreak of hostilities, entry after the outbreak of hostilities, and entry at the time of hostilities. Employing a variety of measures of effectiveness, EETLM demonstated that is does indeed have potential for future use in theater campaign analysis and planning once it has reached developmental maturity. |
