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The use of agent-based simulation (ABS) allows government emergency planners to analyze urban counterterrorist operations and observe environmental behaviors that may not obviously demonstrate themselves in live simulation. This study demonstrates a framework in which future counterterrorism response procedures can be analyzed for training and development. The study analyzes the acute phase of an emergency response to a terrorist bomb and chemical attack in an urban commercial setting. Using the ABS platform Pythagoras, explosive and chemical agent effects, civilian behavior, and responder tactics were represented in the simulation. Using a Nearly Orthogonal Latin Hypercube (NOLH) design to analyze four attack scenarios rendered in simulation, data farming techniques identified the most significant controllable and uncontrollable factors related to estimating percentage injury and death. Statistical comparisons indicate that a marginal increase in the percentage of injured civilians is associated with an emergency response. Specific emergency response elements may have a direct or inverse relationship to civilian survivorship. Given the independent, emergent behavior of the civilian population, functions supporting containment and evacuation may conflict with each other. This suggests the need to improve crowd management at the perimeter of the security cordon; particularly, the need to differentiate between those who were affected by the bomb or chemical gas and those who were not affected. |
