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The dynamics of bush thickening by Acacia mellifera in the arid Namibian Highland Savanna was investigated. First, a conceptual state-and-transition model was developed, based on preliminary findings, personal observations and resultant insights. In this model it was proposed that two main states exist, an open, grassy state and a bush-thickened state. Each of these is subdivided into other states. An unstable transitional state with A. mellifera seedlings within the grass sward is a crucial juncture between the grassy and bush thickened state. In the model, the transition to this unstable state occurs after at least two, but more likely three, consecutive years of well above-average annual rainfall through seed production followed by germination and establishment. Only an interruption by fire, which has a high probability of coinciding with this establishment if the grass sward is lightly utilised, prevents a further transition to a bush thickened state. Fire returns the vegetation to a grassy state by causing an almost 100 % mortality of seedlings. If fire is absent through a lack of fuel (overgrazing) or fire is deliberately excluded, the transition to a bush-thickened state is a fait accompli, but may take decades to reach. Transitions from the bush-thickened state to a grassy state require drought and the associated fungal dieback, which accelerates the senescence of mature shrubs. The model proposes that a transition towards the unstable transitional state occurs rarely, due to the rarity of suitable climatic conditions (protracted period of consecutive years of above-average annual rainfall). The mechanisms of two key transitions were tested. Firstly, the transition to an unstable state through the en masse production of seeds followed by the successful establishment of seedlings after a protracted period of well above average rainfall was tested during a nine-year period (late 1998 to early 2007). Secondly, the transition back to an open grassy state during a potential establishment event, through the mortality of seedlings after a fire, was tested experimentally (2008 and 2009). Both of these studies confirmed the predictions of the model and the mechanisms proposed for these transitions. Preliminary evidence suggests that browsing by small herbivores, in particular lagomorphs, thins resultant thickets out through herbivory. Preliminary evidence also suggests that competition between grasses and seedlings does not directly stop the transition to a bush thickened state but may prolong the window of opportunity for a fire to be effective, through reducing the growth rate of seedlings and saplings. The findings are of relevance to management, and thus an expert system for rangeland management, with emphasis on bush thickening, was developed, based largely on the findings of this research. Preliminary historical evidence casts doubt upon the prevailing perception that bush thickening is mostly a phenomenon of the last half century, and, consequently, that bush thickening is the primary cause of the loss of rangeland productivity in the arid rangelands of Namibia during this period. The study suggests that fire in arid savannas is as important as it is in mesic savannas. A general principle could be stated as follows: The importance of the timing of fire in savannas increases with increasing aridity, whilst the importance of the frequency of fire in savannas decreases with increasing aridity. |
