Population Dynamics Modeling and Management Strategy Evaluation for an Invasive Catfish
| Autor: | Hilling, Corbin David |
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| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: | |
| Druh dokumentu: | Dissertation |
| Popis: | Blue Catfish were introduced in the tidal tributaries of the Chesapeake Bay in the 1970s and 1980s to establish new fisheries during a time period when many fisheries were in decline due to pollution, habitat alteration, disease, overfishing, and environmental catastrophes. Having expanded their range to most Bay tributaries, the species has drawn concern from many stakeholders and scientists for its effects on at-risk and economically important native and naturalized species. My study focused on understanding the dynamics of this species based on multiple long-term monitoring data and evaluating potential management strategies to meet stakeholder needs. I sought to understand how is growth variability was partitioned over time and space, how Blue Catfish populations changed from 1994 to 2016, and how predation on native species and fishery-based performance measures may respond to management intervention. As Blue Catfish length-at-age is exceptionally variable in Virginia tributaries of the Chesapeake Bay, I evaluated the variability in growth using candidate non-linear mixed effects models that described variability in growth over time and space. Linear trend tests supported declines in growth over time within river systems, but did not support the presence of synchronous growth responses among river systems. To better understand population dynamics of Blue Catfish in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, I developed a statistical catch-at-length model for the James River to estimate population size, instantaneous fishing mortality, and size structure over time. The statistical catch-at-length model estimated that Blue Catfish abundance increased slowly and peaked in the mid-2000s before undergoing a recent decline. The model estimated a large spike in abundance due to an estimated large recruitment event in 2011, but may be an artifact of missing data in 2012 in both relative abundance indices examined. The newly developed statistical catch-at-length model provides most detailed information on population dynamics of Blue Catfish in the James River and can be expanded and updated as new data become available. Based on results of the statistical catch-at-length model, I examined population responses to unregulated, maximum length limit (60 cm), and harvest slot limit regulations (harvest allowed 25 –60 cm) in a management strategy evaluation framework. The management strategy evaluation supported that the James River Blue Catfish population could be reduced with increased harvest, but trophy-size fish would decline. Consequently, fishery managers tasked with invasive species management must consider this tradeoff of fishery economic benefits and predation on native populations, especially those prey in which population sizes are unknown. Doctor of Philosophy Blue Catfish are non-native to the Chesapeake Bay watershed, but were stocked in the 1970s and 1980s to provide fishing opportunities to the region. Unknowingly, Blue Catfish expanded downstream and beyond the boundaries of the rivers to which they were originally stocked and now exist in extremely dense populations in places. This expansion in population size and distribution has generated concern for the health of the Chesapeake Bay and calls for population control. I wanted to learn more about Blue Catfish in Virginia, specifically Blue Catfish growth rates, population dynamics, and how they might respond to control efforts. I examined Blue Catfish growth rates and found growth rates differed over time and across river systems. Blue Catfish tended to grow more slowly over time as their populations matured. As growth rates declined, population size increased with maximum population sizes in the late 2000s in the James River with a subsequent decline in abundance. Many invasive species exhibit this sort of phenomenon, where population sizes increase and reach a maximum before declining. Finally, I looked at Blue Catfish responses to different fishing regulations and harvest levels, finding that increased harvest could help control Blue Catfish population sizes. However, Blue Catfish management objectives are in conflict as regulations that limit predation of native species of interest also reduce the proportion of large fish in populations. Blue Catfish management will require stakeholder-driven approaches to ensure buy-in and reduce user conflicts. |
| Databáze: | Networked Digital Library of Theses & Dissertations |
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