| Popis: |
The purpose of this paper is to perform an exploratory analysis of the causalinteractions among global change drivers of regime shifts. Causal loops diagrams were usedto collect a set of feedback mechanisms underlying abrupt change dynamics in 11 regimeshifts. In order to prioritize drivers and to map out possible causal pathways we used networkanalysis. Agricultural processes, global warming, biodiversity loss, demographic andeconomic drivers are the main causes of regime shifts. Based on the analysis of 400pathways, we intuitively suggest five types of cascading effects between regime shifts.Regime shifts dramatically affect the provision of ecosystem services and might underminethe achievement of the first Millennium Development Goal: reduction of hunger and poverty. |
