| Popis: |
In an effort to reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels with a sustainable and environmentally sound improvements, the government of Ethiopia has recognized the need to promote biofuels development so as to support the green economy strategy of the country designed to bring a breakthrough for socio-economic and environmental transformations which are becoming the central excellence for current and future prosperity of the country towards the quality of life and global competitiveness. Under this picture, bioethanol fuel comes into the market as one of the possible options to achieve this ambitious goal.As part of the bioethanol road map, the government has established a binding 10% share of fuel ethanol in the SI-engine vehicles at the capital, Addis Ababa, where 70% of the imported gasoline is consumed. In addition a target of 15% share is set starting 2015 so as to tackle foreign currency loss, energy insecurity, and climate change. Therefore, this study attempts to investigate the potential shifts in bioethanol production and use to meet Ethiopia’s target through a supply chain dynamics approach that allows identifying any existing link(s) that could be acted on. For this purpose, bioethanol development in the country is modeled using Microsoft Excel with the main objective of understanding the nature of ethanol shift in production and use together with the associated shifts in primary resources, feedstock, and other associated products of the industry. The analysis includes the study of agricultural resources, techno-economic conditions, and socio-economic conditions as well as investigation of economic, environmental, and social implications using the current low blend (LB) and targets of medium blend (MB) and high blend (HB) scenarios.As a result of the potential studies, the identified potential land for sugarcane plantation is 700, 000 ha and is estimated at an annual ethanol production potential of around one billion litres from molasses. The existing and new sugar factories are expected to reach their full production capacity in 2020 and are estimated at annual ethanol production potential of about 390 million litres which is planned to be used in different market segments in order to minimize the consumption of petroleum products and the associated socio-economic, technical and environmental impacts. Regarding transport energy substitution, without significant production of ethanol from the existing sugar factories3.3% of the SI engine energy demand can be displaced currently at a competitive price. In 2030 the ethanol production is projected to contribute about 14.6 PJ of energy, two fold of the SI engine energy demand at the same year. Thus, ethanol has the potential to displace 100% of the SI engine energy demand by 2030 but it will require a combined development of other infrastructure in the transport sector. For this reason, the socio-economic, technical, and environmental assessment of ethanol in the SI engine transport sub-sector is conducted according to the government targets considering only 10% to 25% share shifts of the volumetric substitution. To this end, the annual ethanol consumption in SI engine transport sub-sector has the potential to save USD 19.2 to USD 63.2 million of the import bill in 2030 along with other socio-economic, technical, and environmental benefits and risks that require the combined development of transport infrastructure, other market segments, and large scale international trade in ethanol fuel. However, further work is needed on food insecurity impacts, local energy balance, local net GHG emissions, and local urban air quality assessments occurring mainly during the life cycle of bioethanol production and use. |
