Politicians, Twitter, and Financial Markets: Evidence from Donald Trump's tweets
| Autor: | Consunji, Margaret A., 孔美玲 |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Druh dokumentu: | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Popis: | 應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES) 107 The use of Twitter as a key political communication tool has become synonymous with U.S. President Donald Trump’s regime. However, Trump’s tweets can also tend to be unabashedly critical of companies, states, and other political figures. Whether or not these negative tweets have an impact on financial markets is debatable. This paper uses the synthetic control method (SCM) to examine the effects of Trump’s negative trade- and business-related tweets on financial markets, particularly stock prices and exchange rates. Three publicly traded U.S. companies (Boeing, Amazon, Harley-Davidson) and three currencies (Euro, Canadian dollar, Mexican peso) were chosen, while 1-2 tweets were collected for each treatment unit. To create the synthetic control for each treatment unit, extensive control unit data was also collected. Then, for each treatment unit, two synthetic control models were created, with one model containing all outcome lags and all covariates whilst the other contained all outcome lags and some covariates. We found that for each treatment unit, the two models were similar, indicating that the results were robust. Overall, we found that results varied depending on the “target” of Trump’s tweets, with the causal effect being most significant for Amazon and Mexico, likely due to the fact that traders or investors may react differently to Trump’s tweets and may base their decisions on certain company- or country-specific characteristics or features, such as type of industry, trade ties, and geographical proximity, among others. |
| Databáze: | Networked Digital Library of Theses & Dissertations |
| Externí odkaz: |
|