Application of Bayesian Method for Chain Store Sales Prediction
| Autor: | Xie, Jia-Ming, 謝家銘 |
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| Rok vydání: | 2018 |
| Druh dokumentu: | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Popis: | 107 The prediction of sales is important. It is common to do regression analysis to predict sales for a store using its own data. However, for a chain with hundreds of stores, it may be possible to improve prediction accuracy and obtain more reasonable regression coefficients by combining data from different stores. We propose to achieve these goals by using two shrinkage methods: hierarchical Bayesian method and James-Stein estimator. We found that the shrinkage methods yield limited improvement when the regression coefficients in separate models are rather close. Moreover, the hierarchical method incorporated data from different stores and improve predictions, while James-Stein estimator did not improve much. |
| Databáze: | Networked Digital Library of Theses & Dissertations |
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