Essays on the Economic Effects of Common Currency Adoption
| Autor: | Ling-Yu Chen, 陳玲瑜 |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2018 |
| Druh dokumentu: | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Popis: | 106 This research mainly investigates the impact of the euro adoption on the aggregate economic activity and trade of the Eurozone countries. This thesis is composed by two papers. The first article is entitled "Assessing the Growth Effect of Common Currency Adoption: Synthetic Control Approach”. This study empirically assesses the growth effect of adopting the euro by applying a recently developed econometric technique, the synthetic control method (SCM), to implement data-driven comparative case studies for the euro zone. For analytical purposes, we classify the 12 euro-adopting countries into two country groups: core and peripheral countries. The results from the SCM algorithm show that the patterns of per capita GDP in the core (peripheral) countries are generally lower (higher) than those of their counterfactual units. However, the outcomes of the placebo tests indicate that these differences are statistically insignificant, thus implying that the introduction of the euro system neither improves nor impairs the economic growth of these two groups of countries that adopted the euro during 1991–2013. As for the three European Union countries that did not adopt the euro, the results of the inverse SCM analysis show that Denmark would be better off if it had adopted the euro. However, in the cases of Sweden and the United Kingdom, not adopting the euro system may have been a better choice, especially following the sovereign debt crisis. The second article, entitled "The Impact of the Euro Adoption on Inside and Outside Eurozone Trade," focuses on the differential trade effect between the Euro countries and non-euro countries within the 28 European Union (EU) countries. The study period is from 1999 to 2015. We use the panel data models to assess the differential trade effects of these two groups of countries. Our results show that compared to the non-euro-adopting EU countries, the euro-adopting EU countries will export 17.4 % more to the Eurozone. Besides, the euro-adopting countries export 11.6 % more to the non-Eurozone countries than the non-euro adopting EU countries do. In addition, we find that compared to the non-euro adopting EU countries, the euro-adopting EU countries would have more stable exports, regardless inside or outside Eurozone trade. |
| Databáze: | Networked Digital Library of Theses & Dissertations |
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