Methodology Development on Climate Risk Assessment and Adaptive Capacity Building of Water Supply System in Resilient Community
| Autor: | Yuan-Hua Li, 李苑華 |
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| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Druh dokumentu: | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Popis: | 106 Climate change causes significant impacts on water resources with high uncertainty. Decision makers in all sectors must choose wise and flexible adaptation method. For reducing the impacts of climate change, the standard procedure to develop climate change adaptation is the basis. In the water resources aspect, the resilient community in this study is defines as the water supply system of community with high resilience and low vulnerability in changing climate. This study used a design case which is analogous to the Xingshi village in Hsinchu, Taiwan, to demonstrate the adaptation procedure of water supply system. First of all, the key issue is the risk of water supply in the resilient community, and the historical water shortage events in Hsinchu are analyzed for determining the major causes of risk. The community water supply model and performance indicator system are constructed for assessing the current risk of water supply. And then they are further applied with the low frequency weather generator for generating baseline and future weather data to assess the future risk of water supply. Corresponding to the causes of risk, adaptation options are identified for enhancing the resilience of communities. The adaptation pathway map is decided by the setting target and the values of adaptation options. Finally, the adaptation pathway is implemented and monitored for preventing deviation from the adaptation pathway. When unexpected situations happen, the revision of adaptation pathway is needed. In this study, the design case is used to test adaptation procedure and develop tools. The community water supply model is developed to simulate water supply situation in the community, and its relationship with the external water supply system. The situation of community water resources is evaluated by the performance indicator system, including water saving efficiency, tolerance duration and water use efficiency. The low frequency weather generator is developed to produce daily weather data to hold the monthly statistics and the characteristics of low frequency for baseline and future climate scenarios to evaluate future risks. The adaptation pathways are established by using the option pricing model to qualify the values of adaptation options. The developed adaptation procedure, performance indicator system, and simulation models for the water supply system of a resilient community are proved to be able to help decision makers to assess the risk of water supply and build the adaptation capacity. |
| Databáze: | Networked Digital Library of Theses & Dissertations |
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