Generalized Linear Model of Counts- Application to Prediction Traffic Flow
| Autor: | Ding-wen Chen, 陳鼎文 |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2018 |
| Druh dokumentu: | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Popis: | 106 This study discusses the applicability of the generalized linear model for count data in predicting the flow in Kaohsiung area. We consider poisson time series model and Conway-Maxwell-Poisson (CMP) regression model proposed by Conway and Maxwell (1962) with periodic bases concerning the intra-daily and inter-weekly effects. Results obtained by the two methods are compared with traffic data on the intersection of the Zhongzhen First Road and Furen Road from Kaohsiung City traffic control, between August 2016 to December 2016, evaluated by the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). More explicitly, the accuracy of the forecasting results for the forecasting day and the next seven days afterwards, based on traffic flow data three weeks right before the forecasting, will be presented throught the MAPE. The MAPE results show that the CMP model seem to have performed slightly better in general. |
| Databáze: | Networked Digital Library of Theses & Dissertations |
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