Evaluation of Impact of Climate Change on Wind Power in Taiwan by the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation Method
| Autor: | Chun-Lung Chen, 陳俊龍 |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Druh dokumentu: | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Popis: | 105 This study uses Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) to evaluate the wind power uncertainty on daily and monthly periods, and uses the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test (KS test) to verify the results. The test shows that about 38% data sets pass the KS test on daily uncertainty at α = 0.05, and about 55% at α = 0.01. In the case of monthly uncertainty, it is more than 90% data sets pass the KS test at α = 0.05. It is 58.33% passing the KS test at α = 0.05 by using the relative error as the likelihood function at different site. In contrast, it would be 83.33% by using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient as the likelihood function. Finally, this study uses GLUE to evaluate the uncertainty of the impact of climate change on wind power in Tungchitao. The results show that the lower the wind power tends to be, the higher the probability of incidence of low wind power impacted by climate change will be. |
| Databáze: | Networked Digital Library of Theses & Dissertations |
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