Analysis of China-Eurozone Trade: An Application of the Gravity Model of Trade
| Autor: | Sarah Berkovic, 白慧鍈 |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2016 |
| Druh dokumentu: | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Popis: | 104 Using annual data for the periods 1995-2014, this thesis analyzes trade between China and the Eurozone. The analysis is based on an estimation of a gravity model steeped in the economic ideas of Adam Smith concerning the division of labour and scale of the market. Our derivation rests on the idea that expanding exports can drive growth and therefore should be closely related to the scale of markets and the relative sizes of GDP. The trade data are panelled and are one digit SITC data denominated in current US dollars. There are three basic explanatory variables - the nominal GDPs of China and individual Eurozone countries and a portmanteau trade cost variable. Additionally, the thesis considers four dummy variables. The first of these concerns China’s accession to the WTO, which happened in 2001. We analyse the influence of the WTO from economic and political perspectives and we pay close attention to what scholars have generally asserted. Our second variable is the economic crisis of 2008 that had huge influence on trade around the world. We will discuss what happened to China and Eurozone trade during that time. The third and fourth variables have to do with meeting and agreements that started happening between these two big regions of trade. Summit meetings began in 1998 and are now being held annually, addressing key issues of bilateral relations. The last variable is the Comprehensive and Strategic Partnership between China and EU that started in 2003. The statistical analysis confirms the importance of the relative size of economy on trade as predicted. Trade costs are also statistically significant in explaining trade, however in recent years it appears such costs have not decreased much more than in the earlier part of the sample. The structure of trade shows that more than 80 percent of trade is done only in three different commodity groups (manufactured goods classified chiefly by material, machinery and transport equipment, miscellaneous manufactured articles). |
| Databáze: | Networked Digital Library of Theses & Dissertations |
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