The Impact of Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events on the Water Quality of Subtropical Reservoirs
| Autor: | Yi-yi MA, 馬依伊 |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2016 |
| Druh dokumentu: | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Popis: | 104 Climate change became an important issue in recent year, and people’s concern is no longered limit to the change of temperature or precipitation. Climate change may also adversely affect water resource and water quality. This study was aimed to generate the meteorological datas of future with several Global Climate Models (GCMs) and different emissions scenarios, then with the application of CE-QUAL-W2 model, to simulate the water quality change under the impact of climate change, and to discuss the relationship of climate change and water quality. Shin-Shan Reservoir is a typical subtropical reservoir, also important as drinking water resource. This study will be focused on Shin-Shan Reservoir’s water quality with the influence of climate change. Methods to reconstruct the daily dew point temperature, the daily cloudiness and the daily total solar radiation by using statistical characteristics of meteorological data were developed based on Keelung historical weather data. In the meanwhile, we generate the daily temperature and daily precipitation by using 1st order Markov chain and exponential distribution, which is following the principle in TaiWAP Tools. Model simulation of the meteorological situation and the water qualities of Shin-Shan Reservoir in 2014 were performed. The result showed that the meteorological generators and CE-QUAL-W2 model have sufficient credibility. The simulation results of future scenarios showed that the daily temperature and the water temperature will rise parallel, regardless of which scenario is chosen. The annual average concentration of algae will increase due to the rise of temperature. Meanwhile the temperature with a large fluctuation will also cause the annual average concentration of algae to increase. The reason is that in winter the incidentally high temperature will lead to the rise of water temperature, and the heat of water is difficult to be dissipated because of the high heat capacity. On the other hand, the extreme weather events, such as a continuous high or low temperature, have no significant effect on the concentration of algae, which will decrease slightly. As for other water quality parameters, nitrate concentration is negatively correlated with algae, and that between dissolved oxygen and algae is a positive correlation. The concentrations of ammonia and total phosphorus are both low in Shin-Shan Reservoir. So the concentrations of ammonia and total phosphorus will decrease obviously, only when the concentration of algae has a large change. In a word, climate change will have a certain impact on Shin-Shan Reservoir. It is possible that the algal blooms occur throughout the year in the future. Therefore, some measures should be taken in advance. In this study, we simulate the meteorological data and water quality parameters of Shin-Shan Reservoir by using meteorological generator and CE-QUAL-W2 model. The same method can also apply to other waterbodies. Forecasting simulations can predict the future situations in advance, so we can reduce the negative impact of climate change by taking some effective measures. |
| Databáze: | Networked Digital Library of Theses & Dissertations |
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