Agent Based Model and Public Opinion:The Case Study of Taiwan Presidential Election from 2000 to 2012
| Autor: | Zih-Ling Huang, 黃姿菱 |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2015 |
| Druh dokumentu: | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Popis: | 103 In this study, an agent-based model is applied to explore the role of poll from media and degree of reliance on the media for public opinion formation during Taiwan’s Presidential Elections. We use Schelling’s segregation model and the data of last five Presidential Elections to construct the structure of social networks. Through degree of reliance on the media published poll, j = 0.2, as the control group, according to four different polls quality to analyze the effect of j = 0.5 and j = 0.8. In this study, the conclusion is that (1) Whether valid or invalid polls in j = 0.2, the agents have been influenced by polls, the higher value of j, the greater the influence. (2) Under j = 0.2 and 0.5, invalid polls have no influence on the advantage party (candidate), but have significant influence on the disadvantage party; however, under j = 0.8, the opposite phenomenon occurs, indicating that the intensive invalid polls mislead the election results. (3) For the more accurate polls, the simulation results of each party’s support rate is also more likely to represent the real voting results. (4) The simulation results show that the political support distributions of the valid polls and invalid polls are more concentrated than the other two, indicating that even invalid polls also can produce a consensus of public opinion. |
| Databáze: | Networked Digital Library of Theses & Dissertations |
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