Risk assessment for the application of short-term climate outlooks on spring land fallow decisions: A case study of the Taoyuan Area
| Autor: | Ming-chun Tsai, 蔡明君 |
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| Rok vydání: | 2015 |
| Druh dokumentu: | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Popis: | 103 During drought periods, the shortage of water resource causes economic losses as well as the domestic water useage. The impact of droughts can be reduced by applying short-term climate forecasts. The spring land fallow is an important strategy to reduce the impacts of water shortage on both industrial and domestic water usages. Therefore, the timing of the fallow decision becomes an important issue of the water management during droughts. In this study, the weather data is derived from meteorological synthesis mode and the data of the seasonal climate forecast form Central Weather Bureau. Then, input the weather data into the hydrological models to simulate the inflow of the Shihmen Reservoir watershed. Use system dynamics simulation model to simulate the water of supply and demand and the water level of reservoir. Combine the level of reservoir with historical exceedance probability inflow to calculate the shortage rate of probability agricultural water. The forecast uncertainty is estimated by using Bayesian theorem with accuracy of weather forecast. We investiage the effect of seasonal forcast data on the fallow decision based on three scenarios: no forecast, 100% accurate forecast and forecast with uncertainty. The result displays that the risk of decision failure in three scenarios tends to decrease with the delay of decision. The benefit of accurate forecast on the decision of fallow is significant. It can reduce the risk of the decision failure. However, the decrease of the risk of decision failure under forecast with uncertainty is insignificant because of the high uncertainty of itself. |
| Databáze: | Networked Digital Library of Theses & Dissertations |
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