Monetary policy, Business cycle and Exports to the Mainland China
| Autor: | WANG,TANG-RONG, 王唐容 |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2015 |
| Druh dokumentu: | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Popis: | 103 This study examines the correlations of exports to the Mainland China, monetary policy and business cycle, monthly data are from January 1998 to August 2013. Through interest rate, exchange rate (two major tools of monetary policy), Taiwan's total exports to the mainland and coincident comprehensive index are as variables. Using ADF unit root test, VAR model, and Granger causality test examine the correlations among the variables. The variance decomposition, impulse response analysis explored the reaction when the inter-period dynamic effects caused by other variables, and the fluctuations capacity of each variable can be explained by other variables. The results show that Taiwan's total exports to the mainland is one way leading of the interest rate, coincident comprehensive index is one way leading of the interest rate and Taiwan's total exports to the mainland, coincident comprehensive index and the exchange rate are two-way feedback relationship. In the impulse response analysis show that total exports increase will cause prosperity. If NT Dollar devaluation will cause interest rate to rise, and this is compliance with the interest rate parity hypothesis, NT Dollar devaluation will cause total exports increase which were consistent with the expect of current theories and interest rates rise will cause total exports decrease. |
| Databáze: | Networked Digital Library of Theses & Dissertations |
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