Impacts of Aging Population on Housing Prices and Macroeconomics of Taiwan
| Autor: | Wu, Ming-Lun, 吳明倫 |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2014 |
| Druh dokumentu: | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Popis: | 102 The object of this research is to find the impacts of aging population on housing prices and some macroeconomic variables, such as income, mortgage interest rate, unemployment rate, and inflation rate in Taiwan. Then, we can propose solutions in advance. First, this thesis examines whether the quarterly data of 1993~2013 for considered variables are stationary or not. Then, multiple regressions using stationary variables are estimated by OLS. Next, cointegration relationships among macroeconomic variables are investigated. The discovered equilibrium errors, catching the long-term information, are added to the multiple regressions to raise these models’ explaining power. Finally, the impacts of aging population during some significant economic-event periods between 1997 and 2008 are explored. The results show that aging population would make housing prices and unemployment rates go up, but make economic growth rates, mortgage interest rates and inflation rates go down. However, these effects caused by aging population on Taiwan’s housing prices and macroeconomics may be different after the incidents of the Asian financial crisis in 1997, the dot-com bubble in 2000, and the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 have occurred. To cope with the higher housing prices resulted from aging population, the government should reinforce her policy of keeping the prices within a reasonable range. On the other hand, the government shall continue adopting expansionary policies (e.g., the quantitative easing of the U.S., Abenomics of Japan, and negative interest rates of Europe) to stimulate the economy, so that the long-term recessions caused by aging population can be avoided in Taiwan. |
| Databáze: | Networked Digital Library of Theses & Dissertations |
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