A Dynamic Model for the Expansion of Leucaena leucocephala in Hengchun Peninsula, Taiwan
| Autor: | Yen-Jui Chen, 陳彥睿 |
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| Rok vydání: | 2013 |
| Druh dokumentu: | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Popis: | 101 The impact of invasive alien species is one of the thorniest environmental calamities. Considerable costs, both economic and ecological, are spent for the attempt to manage and mitigate the impacts. Leucaena leucocephala, a fast growing tree or shrub native to southern Mexico and northern Central America, has widely invaded the Hengchun peninsula for the past few decades. Early detection is a critical principle to accomplish the efficiency of managing invasive species. And predicting the distribution pattern could be a practical way, because it enables managers to narrow down the potential extent of invasion. Ecological niche models (ENMs) have been increasingly applied to accomplish such projections according to environmental variables; however, ENMs alone do not sufficiently meet the requirement of predicting the expansion of invasive species, because they are incapable of providing further information of how close the species is to full expansion. In this study, we built a dynamic model by integrating ENMs and agent-based techniques to predict the expansion process and the future distribution of L. leucocephala in the Hengchun peninsula. The model simulated the expansion process from 1988 to 2007, and the prediction result was evaluated with observed data in 2007. The optimist model showed excellent coherence with an AUC of 0.96 and its Mantel’s r as 0.79. However, while we simulated the newly infested areas during 2007 to 2013, the extent of infestation is relatively conservative. Consequently, the predicted extent of the static ENM would be recommended for further reference. |
| Databáze: | Networked Digital Library of Theses & Dissertations |
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