Scenario Analysis of Solar Energy Subsidy Policy in Taiwan
| Autor: | Chen, Shin-Yi, 陳心怡 |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2011 |
| Druh dokumentu: | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Popis: | 99 For increasing green energy and pursuing sustainable environment, the government is promoting solar PV systems. A proper subsidy policy is essential for developing PV systems. This study thus analyzes various scenarios for implementing current feed-in tariffs (FIT) subsidy policy and compares their differences based on policy cost and energy and environmental benefits. The historical progress under the previous initial-cost subsidy policy is first evaluated. The changing trends of domestic and foreign installations and system costs are also compared. To analyze the current FIT policy, three possible scenarios and various cases under each scenario are evaluated, including electricity price (EP) rise, green tax (GT), and electricity price rise with green tax. A method with two major steps is established for analyzing these scenarios. The first step forecasts installation quantities, initial costs, and feed-in tariffs, primarily based on a diffusion model and an experience curve. The second step estimates policy cost and energy and environmental benefits of each scenario case. The energy benefit is estimated based on solar radiation, average gross electricity generation, and gross electricity generation in each region. The environmental benefit is estimated according to GHG and air pollutant emission reductions. The payback periods for individual users at different regions are also evaluated. A sensitivity analysis for major parameters is also implemented. According to the simulated results, the installation quantities of EP2% cases are larger than those of GT cases. Cases for EP3% and GT750&EP2% can reach the goal of 2000 MWp in 2025, but the total subsidy will be more than NT$7x104 million. In 2025, GT&EP5% cases may reach 4% of the national gross electricity generations, which is half of the national target of the renewable energy. The estimated gross electricity generation at the abundant radiation region is more than twenty times than those at other regions. The eCO2 reductions in 2025 range between 268.3 and 6813.2 thousand tons, about 0.1 to 2.6% of the 2008 total national emission. And TSP, SOx, and NOx reductions are approximately 7.9-200.4, 108.7-2760.9, and 120.6-3061.5 tons, respectively. The payback period for the abundant radiation region is about 19 years, while the payback periods at other regions are mostly longer than 25 years. The proposed method and results are expected to facilitate related decision making and planning analyses. |
| Databáze: | Networked Digital Library of Theses & Dissertations |
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