A Forecasting Study in Global Laptop Shipment
| Autor: | KUO-HSIANG CHEN, 陳國祥 |
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| Rok vydání: | 2010 |
| Druh dokumentu: | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Popis: | 98 The Global Notebook sales demand forecast is the world's one of the important issues of economic development, because laptop parts from hundreds of the combination .For example: LCD panel, battery, CPU, Memory, motherboard, case, keyboard, a variety of IC and components. Therefore, its sales volume represents the information technology industry as a whole in the development and growth. Therefore hopes to make this prediction notebook computer-related industry supply chain has a reference forecast. To grasp the relationship between market supply and demand and look forward to stable growth industry, to avoid the imbalance of supply and demand, causing inventories and losses, and accordingly a reference for the production and sales. The forecasting will adopting the time series models like Box Jenkins、Holt-Winters、 Decomposition、GM(1,1) and Transfer function. The forecasting will be use data by 2003 to 2009 quarterly data for global notebook shipments. The research period consists of 24 quarterly data from 2003 to 2008, and it will reserve 4 quarterly data from 2009 to precede one-step-ahead forecast. The research results are listed as followings: 1. Compare the univariate models from history data (2003~2008).Decomposition is the best one to forecast the global notebook shipments, second is Box Jenkins and Holt-Winters. 2. Compare the forecasting models from one-step-ahead data. The univariate models show Box Jenkins is the best one to forecast the global notebook shipments (has smaller mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), second is Holt-Winters and Decomposition; the order is just reverse to history data. The multivariate models (Transfer function) is better than three univariate models 3. The mini-notebook forecasting period consists of 7 quarterly data from 2008.Q2 to 2009.Q4 is adopting GM(1,1) model to forecast shipments. The MAPE is 0.34% that show the model to estimate the global mini-notebook shipments has high effect |
| Databáze: | Networked Digital Library of Theses & Dissertations |
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