Apply GM(1,1) to Forecast the Future Manpower Supply and Demand of ROC Male Volunteer Soldier
| Autor: | Chang-Han Wu, 吳昌翰 |
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| Rok vydání: | 2010 |
| Druh dokumentu: | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Popis: | 98 The Military service system of Taiwan gradually evolves from conscription military, conscription-volunteer recruitment hybrid military, mainly voluntary military, to voluntary military. To carry out the voluntary recruitment is a matter of great substance which affects distinctly the nation security. It’s the eighth year proceeding voluntary recruitment; however, the trend towards fewer children and the general low-willingness of male joining military make a question if the need and supply of volunteer soldier can be balanced or lose the balance in the future? This subject is worth to discuss and research. This research is forecasting the demand and supply of male volunteer soldier. To apply GM(1,1) on the historical information of current demand and supply of volunteer soldier, and use grey point 4 and point 5 to predict the demand and supply of male volunteer soldier in year 98-103. The research discovered the grey point 4 is more likely the evolvement of military system of Taiwan with a result need is more than supply. Without demand and supply balance, there will be problem of sourcing volunteer soldier. Thus, this essay suggests there should not be a timetable as well as limited move, and provides advices of recruit strategy and inducement and manpower of military. |
| Databáze: | Networked Digital Library of Theses & Dissertations |
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