An Efficient Forecasting Model and Awareness Monitoring System for Slope Failure：Research and Design
| Autor: | Che-I Wu, 吳哲一 |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2009 |
| Druh dokumentu: | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Popis: | 97 Taiwan generally has large-scale slope failure and torrential rainfall to cause sediment disaster during the typhoon season. Those disasters often result in the serious nature destruction and create the heavy losses of people's lives and properties. The kind of sediment disaster is numerous, and this mainly discussing topic of thesis choose often appear slope failure for sediment disaster to study in Taiwan. It expects to make discussion with the topic this thesis that can help people and prevention and rescuing units to prevent and alarm creating disaster. It was usually the gold period to prevent and rescue disaster with taking place before and creating at that time. It had taken place relevant disasters that all the materials were afterwards to collect and study, and judge causing disaster factors in the past, the time has already had no enough to save a critical situation. Therefore, this research study and analyze the past slope failure as basis of consulting, and combining new information technology to propose two major system themes, which are prediction supporting model and awareness monitoring system, to assist and solve problems of disaster. At first the mainly causing disaster factors of slope failure must be discussed and selected, so survey and examine the trial zone environment in thesis research. Numerous environment causing disaster factors will be chosen, assessed, analyzed, then select seven causing factors which include gradient, soil characteristics, 24-hour accumulated rainfall, vegetation index, soil displacement, soil hydrous and temperature, to cause slope failure. Then according to values of selecting disaster factors into designed prediction supporting model, the model system will assess and analyze the taking place disaster grade and possibility. In order to reach and develop early alarming effect, the prediction supporting model can make sure disaster preventing and alarming functions really, and the study also plans complemented monitoring and transmitting tools. The system will utilize these monitoring and transmitting functions to complete effect of prewarning and informing immediately. In order to combine functions and effects predicting, prewarning, monitoring, and real-time informing, so this paper proposes and designs “An Efficient Forecasting Model and Awareness Monitoring System for Slope Failure” (FAMS), which successfully alerts people the occurrence of slope failure. This thesis also mainly proposes and designs a real-time disaster information system, which is important for people to develop FAMS to assist the prevention disaster works, to obtain, inform, and display the disaster situation. In order to achieve forecasting and monitoring disaster functions, FAM is also implemented using the proposed disaster prediction supporting model, which prediction efficiency model includes Analytic Network Process (ANP), Back-Propagation Neural Network Analysis (BPN), and Multivariate Statistical Analysis (MSA), to compare the adaptable model. The FAMS adopts three tiers that are composed of Heterogeneous Network Users (HNUs), Multimedia Application Server (MAS), and Disaster Information Management and Prediction Supporting System server (DIMPS2) based on the wireless/mobile and Internet communications. The FAMS integrates technology and management parts to analyze the factors of slope failure, scheme forecasting model, and establish monitoring and informing multimedia system. As wireless sensor networks (WSN) and mobile communication technologies advance rapidly, state-of-the-art technologies are adopted to build a model to reliably predict and monitor disasters, as well as accumulate environmental variation-related information. The FAM also combines multimedia transmission technology and quality of service (QoS) mechanism to reveal the real disaster situations, for example, the accurate position and the real-time image/video of accident events. Heterogeneous Network Users (HNUs) use the handheld devices to transmit and receive multimedia information about slope failure via the wireless/mobile and internet communications. Another Slope Monitoring and Sensing (SMS) system includes the Slope Monitoring Engine (SME), network camera, and sensors to sense and collect environment information. I also scheme and design some forecasting supporting model and disaster information management interface. Integrated Service Server (ISS) is composed of six intelligent agents to process the received environment information. Disaster Information Management and Prediction Supporting System server (DIMPS2) which includes Disaster Information Management System (DIMS) and Forecasting and Informing System (FIS) are responsible to determine the probability of slope failure occurrence based on the information from sensors and agents. The FAM adopts Web-GIS to visualize the environmental information in order that evaluation results of the system indicate that the proposed forecasting model achieves more accurate disaster determination than the conventional method. FAMS has integration services of prediction supporting model, awareness monitoring system, and establishing real-time disaster informing system, this thesis can reach the comprehension effects of prevention and rescuing information function. |
| Databáze: | Networked Digital Library of Theses & Dissertations |
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