Rational Foundry Capacity Planning and Investment via Demand Analysis
| Autor: | Tzu-Ching Chang, 張子慶 |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2008 |
| Druh dokumentu: | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Popis: | 96 Taiwan’s semiconductor industry has a remarkable position in worldwide supply chain but unfortunately has not get reciprocal financial return because it’s mostly positioned at manufacturing section of overall supply chain – the low margin section on “Smile curve”. Semiconductor manufacturing foundry is capital-intensive. Beyond the technology and manufacturing capability, the right and effective investment decision can enhance company’s competitiveness and the key of investment decision is higher capacity utilization in line with robust “demand forecast”. However, demand variation of manufacturing (Logic) foundry is significant due to Build-to-order production mode, short lead time and supply chain effects which caused by requirements of Time-to-market and Volume-to-market of electronic consumer market characters. The challenge of capacity planning and operational risk are increasing under fluctuated and cyclical demand since manufacturing foundry’s product is “capacity” and capacity strategy consequently is one of the important business decisions. There are several strategies: building capacity by long-term growth trend, by demand-centric to maximize market share, by capacity-centric to maximize profit, or by compromised “Level-off” strategy. No matter what strategy is adopted, the more information from demand analysis can surely help make more right capacity planning and reduce operational risk. In this study, the demand analysis is proceeding by time series method while demand is the core of the system dynamics of semiconductor industry. The historical demand is decomposed as seasonal, trend, random and cyclical factors. Demand and capacity are dependent. So capacity strategy and model are composed again from the information of demand decomposition. Comparing the four capacity strategies with actual practice results, the “level-off” strategy is recommended in terms of capacity utilization and financial indices such as revenue, margin, asset turn and asset return. This will be a good reference for capacity decision maker. However, the executor may need monitoring the other leading indicators for strategy tuning by industry dynamics since this demand analysis and capacity strategy recommendations are based on historical, not forecast. Past is not sure repeated in future and forecast has risk for deviation. |
| Databáze: | Networked Digital Library of Theses & Dissertations |
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