The Estimation of Project Crash Time under High and Low Probability Benchmark
| Autor: | Hung-Chi Lee, 李宏吉 |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2007 |
| Druh dokumentu: | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Popis: | 95 The study of PERT has concentrated in the areas of activity time distributions and the probability that a project can be completed within a specified duration. In this research, we first examine several activity time distributions and their probability density functions. We then consider the situation when a project is to be completed within desired time duration with both low and high expectations. In this research we use 25% chance of project completion before the desired time as low expectation. On the other hand, we use 75% chance of project completion before the desired time as high expectation. By Using the Central Limit Theorem and by tracing the occurrence of critical paths, we develop an approach that will allow us to determine the minimum amount of crash time that will meet project completion time with either low expectation or high expectation. It is noted that the occurrence of new critical paths that have different variance often requires repeated evaluation leading to more crashing time. Specifically, while using the low expectation, new critical path with lower variance will lead to more crash time. On the other hand, when high expectation is adopted, new critical path with higher variance will lead to more crash time. Two numerical examples are used to illustrate this developed approach and the effects of low expectation and high expectation. |
| Databáze: | Networked Digital Library of Theses & Dissertations |
| Externí odkaz: |
|