The Impacts of Cross-Strait Direct Shipping on Taiwan's Economy
| Autor: | Shu-Man Chang, 張淑滿 |
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| Rok vydání: | 2006 |
| Druh dokumentu: | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Popis: | 95 The purposes of this thesis are twofold: One is to evaluate how the direct shipping across the Strait will impact the Taiwanese economy, through a more precise measure of transport cost saving. Current debate on the issue of the impact of cross-Strait direct shipping is prevailing in the literature and the estimated results are in general different, which is basically grounded on the difference in the estimated transport costs reduction resulting from the direct-shipping policy. Therefore, we first re-estimate the influence of the direct shipping across Strait on the shipping cost saved, and then apply the GTAP model to re-evaluate its impacts on the Taiwanese economy. The other purpose is to examine whether the across-Strait direct shipping policy will offset the negative impact of ASEAN_plus_3 FTA on Taiwan. Again, the GTAP model and its database are adopted for this purpose. Major findings are listed as below. Regarding to the impacts on the shipping cost: for the container liner shipping, it will save 4.3 million dollars per year. For bulk coal, it will save 30 thousand dollars per voyage. The economic impacts on Taiwan are estimated as follows: the real GDP will increase by 19 million dollars (that is, 0.006%), the term of trade will increase by 0.137%, the welfare will increase by 161 million dollars, imports price index will decrease by 0.055%. In addition, the volume of export will increase, as reflected by the positive change in the index of 0.054%. Similarly, the volume of import will increase by 0.202%. Regarding the effect on individual sector, we find that a positive impact occurs on oil seeds, forestry, fishery, textile, chemical and plastics, steel, other manufacture, and other service, while a negative impact occurs on the others. As to the indirect effect of the direct-shipping policy on the impacts of ASEAN_plus_3 FTA on Taiwan, it is shown that there is a somewhat offset effect on the negative impact on Taiwanese real GDP, welfare, and term of trade. However, the corresponding impact on each industry is ambiguous; some industries do expand while some shrink. Keywords: cross-Strait, direct shipping, GTAP, ASEAN_plus_3 FTA |
| Databáze: | Networked Digital Library of Theses & Dissertations |
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