The relationship between information frequency and financial distress prediction
| Autor: | Chia-ching Hung, 洪嘉慶 |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2007 |
| Druh dokumentu: | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Popis: | 95 This thesis is based on the stock listing electronic companies in TSE and OTC. There are two purposes of this paper. First, to understand what the difference between failure and non-failure firms under financial factors and corporate governance indicators. And second, to compare with the different material frequency, the predictive ability and the correlation regarding the enterprise crisis reveals the variable whether has a difference. The experiment results show that: By independent-sample t test and logistic regression, we find that under the quarterly financial statements, the profit index is the most manifest factor and the next is debt ratio. The closer to the time of the distress, the more factors in operating efficiency that make the two kinds of the firms differ. Financial distress firms have the higher account receivable turnover rate. In corporate governance factors, the proportion of family members holdings and the rate of directors’ shareholding are the most two important variables. The results from yearly financial reports are similar to which from quarterly financial statements. Profit index and liquidity index can be the prior indications to judge whether a firm gets financial crisis or not. In independent-sample t test, the cash flow from operation ratio and times interest earned are marked variables in the first and second year before bankrupt. The diversity of traditional financial index and the corporate governance variables between failure firms and normal firms are very obvious in the first year previous to failure. In corporate governance factors, the proportion of family members holdings and the extent of the shares as collateral by the board of directors are the most important variables. Regardless of yearly or quarterly financial statements, the closer to the time of the distress, the more different variables appear. The average percentage of correctly classified firms is 80.13% from the 8th to 5th quarter previous to the distress better than 2nd year previous to the distress. Compared with the average accurate prediction rate from the 4th to 1st quarter, the predicting ability from 1st yearly financial statement is better. But the 1st and 2nd accurate rate are 92.54% and 93.44%, the average is 93%. In other words, we can overcome the time lag and raise the predictive ability by using quarterly reports rather than yearly financial statements. |
| Databáze: | Networked Digital Library of Theses & Dissertations |
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