A Framework of Evaluating the Risk and PERT Scheduling with Resource Constraints
| Autor: | Po-Wen Ko, 柯博文 |
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| Rok vydání: | 2007 |
| Druh dokumentu: | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Popis: | 95 Most of the works on resource-constrained project scheduling problems(RCPSP) attempt to simplify the problem complexity by assuming that the duration of activity is fixed. This assumption leads to the result that the preciseness of the project schedule planning is dramatically reduced. In the real project life activity duration is a random variable with given density function. To investigate all possible resulting scenarios of schedule and their corresponding risks caused by the scheduling policy and the duration uncertainty, a scenario-based framework for project scheduling and risk evaluating is proposed. The framework consists of two phases: the first stage is to use Monte Carlo simulation to generate a predetermined number of sets of different activity durations. For each set, adopting QSGM(Qualitative Simulation Graph Methodology) to build all possibly feasible schedules, each of the feasible schedules is transformed to activity path, also called PERT-path, by EG(event graph) method. The all possible paths are generated by two folds: decision fork caused by different decision making and chance fork brought by uncertain activity duration. These possible paths and the possible forks construct a decision tree during project evolution. In the next stage a decision-making model based on expected utility and entropy(EU-E) is proposed. The EU-E is a measure of risk and can reflect an individual’s institute attitude toward risk. Based on project manager’s different preference toward risk, the corresponding optimal activity path of project progress can be found. |
| Databáze: | Networked Digital Library of Theses & Dissertations |
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