SYSTEM DYNAMIC BASED-SIMULATION OF PHARMACEUTICAL MARKET IN TAIWAN

Autor: Ching-Wen Tang, 唐靖雯
Rok vydání: 2006
Druh dokumentu: 學位論文 ; thesis
Popis: 94
Pharmaceutical companies invest lots of time and money for developing new drugs every year. What they most concern is how to squeeze every possible profit after launching a new drug to market. Our study was to apply computer modeling method to build models of pharmaceutical market to simulate the sales volume of drug which was based on System Dynamics (SD). We chose Powersim (www.powersim.com) as the modeling tool. In order to simulate the models we built, we added some factors which were concerned most related to the pharmaceutical industry into our models. They included whether the drug cost of NHI was covered or not, epidemiologic effect, total patient number, etc. Besides, we assumed other events which may occur in real world, such as the drug cost coverage policy by NHI was changed, launching of competitors’ products or generics, a newly approved indication, a new dosage form was approved, and so on. All data in our study were hypothesized and the drugs we used in our models were anti-hypertensive agents. As a result, the final model has been built with combination of several submodels. With this final model, we set six scenarios with different events assumed. From simulation results of these scenarios, we could see the curves of sales volume of studied drug were fluctuated. Using this method, it may help pharmaceutical companies propose a suitable marketing strategy to make the maximum profits. Based on the results obtained from this study, it seems that SD is feasible way to simulate the pharmaceutical market. In this study, we only consider the prescription medications market and the single drug treatment market in this study, but there are also the OTC market and the combination therapy with two or more drugs together in the real world. In the future, we can add other factors to build the OTC market and combination drug therapy market. We can also add some factors, such as cost-benefit analysis and supply chains to study their impact on the sale volume of the studied drug.
Databáze: Networked Digital Library of Theses & Dissertations
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