A Study of Mortgage Borrower Prepayment Behavior in Taiwan:A Multinomial Logit Model Approach
| Autor: | LIAO CHIEN-LUNG, 廖建隆 |
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| Rok vydání: | 2005 |
| Druh dokumentu: | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Popis: | 93 This thesis use Multinomial Logit Model to explain mortgage borrower’s payment behaviors (normal payments, partial prepayments, full prepayments, overdue or default). We select ten measures to explain the prepayment behaviors of mortgage homeowners in the northern part of Taiwan（ages, sexual of borrowers, locations of houses, ages and balance ratios of loans, records of prepayments, spreads of contract interests and one year time deposit interests, spreads of stock market returns and contract interests, loan to value, and the careers of borrowers）. Our approach is different form the previous studies in Taiwan. First, we use a multinomial choice model in stead of the binomial choice model after used in this area of study in Taiwan. Secondly, our borrowers make decisions on how to pay their monthly payment each month. The empirical results indicate that ages of borrowers, spreads of contract interests and one year time deposit interests, spreads of stock market returns and loan to value are significantly and positively related to partial prepayments; while ages and balance ratios of loans are significantly and negatively related to partial prepayments. The ratios of loans balance, spreads of contract interests and one year time deposit interests, spreads of stock market returns and contract interests and loan to value ratio are positively related to the possibilities of overdue payments, while the ages of the loans are negatively related to it. In addition, genders of borrowers are not related to the possible of overdue payments. The locations of houses will also affect the possibilities of partial prepayments, while the Taipei city has higher rate than other cities. And the borrowers who had partial prepayments records in the past will also have higher possibilities of partial prepayments in the future, and of course, lower possibilities of overdue payments. The careers of borrowers also play an important role. Dealers and people of other careers have more probability of overdue payments, while the government employees show less. Dealers, people of other careers and government employees have higher possibilities of partial prepayments. |
| Databáze: | Networked Digital Library of Theses & Dissertations |
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