Title of Thesis: The Type of Earnings Forecast Error and the influence of management financial forecasts on the accuracy of analyst earnings forecasts: the effect of earning level
| Autor: | Wei Ting, 丁緯 |
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| Rok vydání: | 2004 |
| Druh dokumentu: | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Popis: | 92 Many studies explored analysts’ forecast error type; however, the results are mixed. All of the over optimistic, over-reaction, and under-reaction types were supported. Based on psychology’s heuristic viewpoint, this study explores analysts’ and management’ earnings forecast error type. Then the relationship between the earnings level and forecast error is investigated. In addition, both the management financial forecasts and the analyst earnings forecasts are the important information for investors. The endogenous relationship between these two kinds forecasts implies that analysts might forecast in accordance with managements’ guidance. The another purpose of this study is to explore the influence of management financial forecasts on the accuracy of analyst earnings forecasts.Our results, according to the forecasted data from year 1998 to 2002 in Taiwan security market have fore. 1. Both analysts’ and management’ earnings forecast error type support the over optimistic. 2. The relationship between earnings level and earnings forecast error is significantly negative. 3. After controlling the earnings level, the finding of optimistic forecast error still existed in good news company, but not in bad news company. 4. Management financial forecasts can improve the accuracy of analyst earnings forecasts significantly. 5. Bad news management forecast benefits more for the analysts than the good news. However, there is no relationship between the accuracy of management financial forecast in the prior year and that of analyst earnings forecast. |
| Databáze: | Networked Digital Library of Theses & Dissertations |
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