Real Estate Cycles in Taiwan-The Influence of Constructiohn Lags, Preannouance Effect, and Macroeconomic Variables
| Autor: | PENG CHIEN - WEN, 彭建文 |
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| Rok vydání: | 2000 |
| Druh dokumentu: | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Popis: | 88 This dissertation consisted of three relative essays about real estate cycles. The first paper explores the influence of the real estate cycles on construction lags by analyzing the fluctuations of total floor areas of building permits and usage permits as a reflection of construction lags. Results support that a long-run equilibrium is existing between them; however, building permits may be dropped during a downswing market. In addition, the duration of construction lags is affected by changes in the real estate cycles and by the impacts of policies. During a time of strong market, the duration of construction lags is cut shorter and is extended when the market is depressed. The second paper presents a simultaneous equation to examine how expectation of market participants and preannouncement of zoning control influence real estate cycles through three housing submarkets: rental market, sales market, and new construction market. One interesting finding is that, before the government announced a change in its zoning policy, builders constructed at maximum capacity despite fact that the real estate market was already depressed. Such construction only worsens the real estate market condition and extends the duration of depressed period. Another interesting finding is that the expected real estate cycles have different effects on rent and housing price. Although high capital gain expectations drive up the housing price, rent continues to decrease. A high vacancy rate, although decreasing the housing price, has little influence on construction starts. The last paper examines the long-term relationships between real estate cycles and macroeconomic variables by using cointegration test and error correction model. I found that both housing price of Taipei City and Taipei County do have long-term relationships with money supply, vacant houses, and new construction, but when considering market structure change, the relationship between housing price and new construction will change. I also found that the vacant houses have more influence on housing price than that of money supply and new construction, and the influences of these three variables on housing price are more sensitive in Taipei City than Taipei County. These results reflect the market structure of Taipei City and Taipei County is different, and the importance to solve vacant houses problem. Another surprise finding is that short-term lead or lag relationships among these variables are not significant. One possible reason is the structure change of real estate market after 1990. |
| Databáze: | Networked Digital Library of Theses & Dissertations |
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