A Study on Market Demand Prediction for ADVANCE-F System
| Autor: | Cheng, Chia-Hui, 鄭佳慧 |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 1998 |
| Druh dokumentu: | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Popis: | 86 The Advanced Drive Vehicle/Automatic Navigation & Control Enroute System- Formosa(ADVANCE-F) is an application of the hi-technology on the transportation field. Because of the system still in development, the potential users have no experience or have little knowledge about it; this study adopts the stated preference method and discrete choice model to predict the market share. However, from the related literature it appears that the predictionis obviously higher by using SP method. In order to obtain more precise prediction this study introducesthe Delphi method, in addition, this study also adopts the concept of diffusion of innovation in marketing field to obtain more actual estimate closing to market demand. The investigation shows the female is more preferred to use new system. After market segmentation, the Binary Logist Model predicts the new system''s market share is up to 64.22%, Delphi Method predicts only 14.88% market share. However, from the sales experience for optional equipment of auotomobile such as GPS and ABS just introduced in the market, i.shows that about 10% to 20% people will include the optional equipment when the price isapproximately at 1/3~1/4 of the car price. Furthermore, according to thediffusion of innovation, the leading users will be at proportion of 10%to 20% and will be increased to 70% to 80% at mature stage.Taking into account the extreme high cost required for system development, this study recommends using conservative estimate of 14.88% as predicted by experts at the initial stage and 64.22% for the mature stage. In addition, the factors that will affect the market share of the system are systemsafety, price, network completion, usage fee, management, and legislationissues. |
| Databáze: | Networked Digital Library of Theses & Dissertations |
| Externí odkaz: |
|