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By using case-studies as method of analysis, the dissertation analyzes the impact external variables can have at the onset of genocide and politicides. While a majority of studies focus on internal conditions when analyzing these events, the basic premise of this dissertation states that to understand why genocide and politicide occur it is important to assess the role of external variables as well as the interaction between them and the internal variables. The dissertation builds upon Harff’s (2003) statistical model of genocide/politicide, which tested internal variables as predictors of genocide or politicide events. The model, however, misclassified 26% of the cases. The cases included in the dissertation, Iraq, Indonesia and East Timor, were selected because they have at least two events with one accurately predicted and another not predicted by Harff’s model. The dissertation used a modified version of Stoett’s (2004) classification of state involvement to assess the role of external variables at the onset of these crimes: effects of colonialism at state creation, direct assistance, and indirect support. By using case-studies it was possible to observe the interaction between the external and internal variables and how those dynamics worked at the onset of genocide and politicide, allowing to observe how external variables influenced, constituted and created the events and which ones had a larger impact. It was found that external variables can affect whether regimes develop the reasons and obtain the means and opportunities to carry out the crimes. Furthermore, the case studies revealed that external variables can have both direct and indirect effects which can increase or decrease the probability of genocide/politicide. While the effects of colonization are the main root cause of conflict, these effects had mostly already been embedded in the domestic conditions before the events. Overall, direct assistance and indirect support had the most impact at the onset, providing both means and opportunities, and in some cases, even the reasons for engaging in genocide or politicide. In some instances, indirect assistance in the form of strategic indifference or diplomatic support proved to have a stronger effect. One important finding is direct assistance and indirect support can change in directionality, explaining why some cases progressed further into genocide/politicide or why they did not. External states had very specific reasons for providing/removing the assistance to either the government to the militant groups, or both. Thus, when interests of external powers changed, the assistance could be removed completely or given to the opposite group. These changes in directionality of support reflect broader dynamics of international security and political issues. These changes in directionality of support should be taken into account in policies for prevention of genocide and politicide. New policies should include the effect of the international environment, as well as changes in directionality of assistance, both in providing the conditions for the crimes to occur and in allowing or preventing any intervention to stop them. |
