| Popis: |
Oceanic climates, such as those found in Scotland and Norway, contain globally important ecosystems including heather (Calluna vulgaris) dominated heathlands and moorlands. These areas are commonly influenced by traditional managed burning that provides optimal patchy-mosaic habitat for red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scoticus), and improved forage quality for livestock and deer. Recently, there has been a growing trend to remove traditional management and grazing in favor of alternative land-uses. Simultaneously, an increase in the prevalence of wildfire has highlighted a need to better understand fuel structures and the current state of fire behavior prediction models for these areas. This thesis evaluates the outputs of several empirical and quasi-empirical prediction models against observations of fire behavior. From these, suggestions are made as to the efficacy of these models and their generalizability across oceanic heathlands and moorlands. Most notably, the Rothermel model predicts rates of spread similar to baseline empirical models and observed fire behavior. Further, landscape-scale fire behavior was predicted, using the software Farsite, for current and potential management patters across a range of fire weather conditions representative of oceanic climates. Findings suggest that management actions which produce the most heterogenous arrangements of fuels, including current management using rotational burning, lead to the lowest overall predictions for mean rates of spread and fireline intensity. Conversely, limited fuel reduction management, such as that found in early-successional forest restoration, leads to the highest overall predictions for mean rates of spread and fireline intensity. |
