| Popis: |
Many factors lead to mortgage default and foreclosure, and neighborhood characteristics are among the most important (Quercia and Stegman, 1992). However, few scholars have examined how neighborhood characteristics contribute to mortgage foreclosure (Cotterman, 2001; Baxter and Lauria, 2000; Lauria, 1998) and none of the previous studies have systematically addressed the mutual interaction between foreclosure and neighborhood characteristics and change. This research uses multiple datasets from Ohio’s two most populous counties to examine some of these previously omitted or understudied aspects of the issue. Particular attention has been paid to each neighborhood’s racial composition, economic level, housing prices and other housing stock characteristics as well as to the changes over time in those variables. The analysis starts with simple descriptive statistics, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and comparison of different foreclosure patterns in the two counties. Then spatial regression models, H-Robust models and Iterated Seemingly Unrelated Regression (ITSUR) are used to explain the interaction between mortgage foreclosure and neighborhood characteristics and change. The study finds that foreclosures cluster in low-income minority neighborhoods and inner cities, although suburban areas have seen an increase. Educational attainment, median household income, and average housing cost burden contribute to foreclosures in both counties. As expected there are similarities and disparities in the interaction of foreclosure and neighborhoods between the two counties. The use of panel data, Robust OLS, spatial lag models and SUR has solved some problems related to spatial dependence, heteroskedasticity and mutual non-recursive interaction between foreclosure and neighborhoods. The research not only contributes to the literate and methodology in related topics, but also contributes to our understanding of the relationship between foreclosure and neighborhoods, and will assist in the creation of better policies to deal with the issue of foreclosure. The policy recommendations include a strong focus on neighborhood foreclosure prevention, not just policies aimed at individual homeowners. These policies might focus on neighborhoods with low educational attainment, an increasing percentage black population, or a high female headship rate. This project suggests that foreclosure prevention programs not be the same in all places. |
