| Popis: |
Research on voting behavior is one important area of study in the field of political science. One explanation of vote choice, the Economic Voting Theory, suggests that democratic citizens tend to favor governments whose time in power corresponds with positive economic or social outcomes and reject governments they see as responsible for poor performance. When poor performance occurs, voters tend to choose the opposition during subsequent elections. Based on this discussion, the purpose of this thesis is to evaluate how the recent period of political and economic crisis affects popular voting behavior in Brazil. Few studies based on economic voting theory have relied on in-depth data collected in the field during political-economic downturns. This thesis draws on analyses of 21 semi-structured interviews conducted with voting age adults from different economic backgrounds in the city of Belo Horizonte in Brazil, during the election year of 2018. The results suggest that the Economic Voting Theory is effective in explaining voting behavior in Brazil. Respondents who expressed grievances with government performance express strong preference for the opposition. However, the theory fails to explain the variation in voter certainty regarding their choice of opposition candidate. At the time of the study, many respondents expressed significant uncertainty regarding the alternatives available in the campaign. This demonstrates the need to incorporating other variables, such as level of education and ideological inclination, to understand voting preferences. Combining Sociological and Psychological theories with Economic Voting Theory improves predictions of respondents vote choice. |
