Mathematical Modeling and Analysis of Ebola Virus Disease Dynamics: Implications for Intervention Strategies and Healthcare Resource Optimization

Autor: Ikram Ullah, Imtiaz Ahmad, Nigar Ali, Ihtisham Ul Haq, Mohammad Idrees, Mohammed Daher Albalwi, Mehmet Yavuz
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2024
Předmět:
Zdroj: Mathematical and Computational Applications, Vol 29, Iss 5, p 94 (2024)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 2297-8747
1300-686X
DOI: 10.3390/mca29050094
Popis: This study implements a minded approach to studying Ebola virus disease (EVD) by dividing the infected population into aware and unaware groups and including a hospitalized compartment. This offers a more detailed understanding of illness distribution, potential analyses, and the influence of public knowledge. The findings might improve healthcare budget apportionment, public health policy, and contest Ebola and related infections. In this study, we fully observe the new model SEIHR that we have constructed. We start by outlining the essential concepts of the model and confirming its mathematical reliability. Next, we calculate the fundamental reproductive number (R0), which is critical for appreciating how the infection spreads and how effective treatments might be. We also study stability analysis, which looks at when the disease may decline or become chronic. Furthermore, we exhibit the occurrence of bifurcation in the EVD Epidemic Model and perform a sensitivity analysis of (R0). The main findings of this study show that for R0<1, the disease-free equilibrium, is globally stable, meaning the disease will die out, whereas for R0>1, the endemic equilibrium is stable, meaning the disease persists. Additionally, the sensitivity analysis reveals that the most influential parameters in controlling R0 are the transmission rate and the recovery rate, which could guide effective intervention strategies. Finally, we use numerical simulations so that out outcomes are more significant.
Databáze: Directory of Open Access Journals
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