To Identify the Forecast Skill Windows of MJO Based on the S2S Database

Autor: Xiaolei Liu, Yihao Peng, Jingzhi Su, Xinli Liu
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2024
Předmět:
Zdroj: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 51, Iss 16, Pp n/a-n/a (2024)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 1944-8007
0094-8276
DOI: 10.1029/2024GL109903
Popis: Abstract As a practical reflection of the opportunity window of Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO), there are intermittent periods of relatively high forecasting skills, namely the forecast skill windows. Robust forecast skill windows are identified based on the subseasonal‐seasonal reforecast database, during which the majority of models show high forecast skills. A total of 15 MJO forecast skill windows during 1993–2020 have been identified. Most of the forecast skill windows are closely associated with active MJO events with high amplitude. Whether a high‐skill forecast window appears significantly depends on the magnitude of MJO intensity during the same period. The maintenance of active strong MJO events is potentially related with the warmer surface sea temperature anomalies in the western Pacific. Further research into such processes may unveil the MJO development mechanism and improve the MJO forecast skill.
Databáze: Directory of Open Access Journals
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