A Geosimulation Approach for Data Scarce Environments: Modeling Dynamics of Forest Insect Infestation across Different Landscapes

Autor: Taylor Anderson, Suzana Dragicevic
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2016
Předmět:
Zdroj: ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, Vol 5, Iss 2, p 9 (2016)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 2220-9964
DOI: 10.3390/ijgi5020009
Popis: Insect infestation behaves as a complex system, characterized by non-linear spatial dynamics and emergent patterns that evolve from smaller to larger spatial scales. The emerald ash borer (EAB) is an invasive species that has infested and killed millions of ash trees across North America. Existing EAB models use traditional statistical approaches that often cannot address the spatiotemporal complexity emerging from EAB infestation processes. Moreover, these studies of insect infestation are limited by a lack of sufficient time series data. The objective of this study is to develop a geosimulation approach to overcome the challenge of data scarcity and represent EAB infestation at a regional scale. Geographic information systems (GIS), multi-criteria evaluation (MCE), and cellular automata (CA) are used to model EAB spread across different hypothetical landscape types. Simulation results represent EAB propagation and indicate different dynamics of spread for each landscape. Urban environments are identified as being at the greatest risk to the infestation. The proposed approach offers a theoretical framework and a modeling tool to represent the propagation of EAB infestation that can be applied with real geospatial datasets and potentially used in forest management strategies.
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