Effects of meteorological factors on the incidence of mumps and models for prediction, China

Autor: Wen-ting Zha, Wei-tong LI, Nan Zhou, Jia-jia Zhu, Ruihua Feng, Tong Li, Yan-bing Du, Ying Liu, Xiu-qin Hong, Yuan Lv
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2020
Předmět:
Zdroj: BMC Infectious Diseases, Vol 20, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2020)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 1471-2334
DOI: 10.1186/s12879-020-05180-7
Popis: Abstract Background Mumps is an acute respiratory infectious disease with obvious regional and seasonal differences. Exploring the impact of climate factors on the incidence of mumps and predicting its incidence trend on this basis could effectively control the outbreak and epidemic of mumps. Methods Considering the great differences of climate in the vast territory of China, this study divided the Chinese mainland into seven regions according to the administrative planning criteria, data of Mumps were collected from the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System, ARIMA model and ARIMAX model with meteorological factors were established to predict the incidence of mumps. Results In this study, we found that precipitation, air pressure, temperature, and wind speed had an impact on the incidence of mumps in most regions of China and the incidence of mumps in the north and southwest China was more susceptible to climate factors. Considering meteorological factors, the average relative error of ARIMAX model was 10.87%, which was lower than ARIMA model (15.57%). Conclusions Meteorology factors were the important factors which can affect the incidence of mumps, ARIMAX model with meteorological factors could better simulate and predict the incidence of mumps in China, which has certain reference value for the prevention and control of mumps.
Databáze: Directory of Open Access Journals
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