The influence of cross-border mobility on the COVID-19 epidemic in Nordic countries.

Autor: Mikhail Shubin, Hilde Kjelgaard Brustad, Jørgen Eriksson Midtbø, Felix Günther, Laura Alessandretti, Tapio Ala-Nissila, Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba, Mikko Kivelä, Louis Yat Hin Chan, Lasse Leskelä
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2024
Předmět:
Zdroj: PLoS Computational Biology, Vol 20, Iss 6, p e1012182 (2024)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 1553-734X
1553-7358
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012182
Popis: Restrictions of cross-border mobility are typically used to prevent an emerging disease from entering a country in order to slow down its spread. However, such interventions can come with a significant societal cost and should thus be based on careful analysis and quantitative understanding on their effects. To this end, we model the influence of cross-border mobility on the spread of COVID-19 during 2020 in the neighbouring Nordic countries of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. We investigate the immediate impact of cross-border travel on disease spread and employ counterfactual scenarios to explore the cumulative effects of introducing additional infected individuals into a population during the ongoing epidemic. Our results indicate that the effect of inter-country mobility on epidemic growth is non-negligible essentially when there is sizeable mobility from a high prevalence country or countries to a low prevalence one. Our findings underscore the critical importance of accurate data and models on both epidemic progression and travel patterns in informing decisions related to inter-country mobility restrictions.
Databáze: Directory of Open Access Journals
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