Potential drivers of human tick-borne encephalitis in the Örebro region of Sweden, 2010–2021

Autor: Lene Jung Kjær, Magnus Johansson, Per-Eric Lindgren, Naveed Asghar, Peter Wilhelmsson, Hans Fredlund, Madeleine Christensson, Amélie Wallenhammar, René Bødker, Gunløg Rasmussen, Petter Kjellander
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2023
Předmět:
Zdroj: Scientific Reports, Vol 13, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2023)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 2045-2322
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-34675-x
Popis: Abstract Incidence of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) has increased during the last years in Scandinavia, but the underlying mechanism is not understood. TBE human case data reported between 2010 and 2021 were aggregated into postal codes within Örebro County, south-central Sweden, along with tick abundance and environmental data to analyse spatial patterns and identify drivers of TBE. We identified a substantial and continuing increase of TBE incidence in Örebro County during the study period. Spatial cluster analyses showed significant hotspots (higher number of cases than expected) in the southern and northern parts of Örebro County, whereas a cold spot (lower number of cases than expected) was found in the central part comprising Örebro municipality. Generalised linear models showed that the risk of acquiring TBE increased by 12.5% and 72.3% for every percent increase in relative humidity and proportion of wetland forest, respectively, whereas the risk decreased by 52.8% for every degree Celsius increase in annual temperature range. However, models had relatively low goodness of fit (R2
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