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【Objective】 Understanding water demand and water availability in a region is fundamental to securing its sustainable development. Taking Yinqin irrigation district as an example, this paper analyzes the balance between water supply and water demand in attempts to help improve regional water resources management. 【Objective】 The quota method and the related development planning forecast were first used to evaluate the variation in water supply and demand from 2018 to 2025 under different conditions. We then introduced a supply-demand water balance index (RWRI) and classified the balance into three types: water surplus, in balance, and water shortage. The RWRI was further divided into nine conditions. All these were used to evaluate the balance between water supply and demand in the district under different conditions. 【Result】 When the required water guarantee is 50%, RWRI in the district in 2018 and 2025 is 1.06 and 0.92, respectively, indicating that water supply and demand are in balance and water can support normal activities. When the required guarantee is increased to 75% and 90%, however, RWRI in the district is 1.71 and 2.56, representing high and extreme water shortage, respectively. These will be improved in 2025, with the associated RWRI being 1.29 (75% guarantee rate) and 1.45 (90% guarantee rate), indicating mild and high water shortage, respectively. 【Conclusion】 Water supply and demand in Yinqin irrigation area is expected to improve in the future, though it is unlikely to meet the demand of all sectors for water, especially in dry years. |
