CMIP6 models project a shrinking precipitation area

Autor: Andreas Dobler, Rasmus E. Benestad, Cristian Lussana, Oskar Landgren
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2024
Předmět:
Zdroj: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2024)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 2397-3722
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00794-z
Popis: Abstract Reanalysis and satellite data indicate a decreasing precipitation area in recent decades, affecting local water resources and precipitation intensities. We have used CMIP6 simulations to test the hypothesis of a shrinking precipitation area in a warming climate. Our analyses reveal that SSP5-8.5 projections show a robust decrease in the precipitation area between 50 °S and 50 °N, and globally in 75% of the simulations. The new findings support the observed relationship, although to a lesser extent than earlier found in reanalysis and satellite data. We find a poleward shift of precipitation, increasing the daily precipitation area in the Arctic from 18% to 28%. At lower latitudes the precipitation area is reduced due to a decreasing occurrence of precipitation. These changes are related to the expansion of low relative humidity zones in the lower-to-mid troposphere, specifically at the poleward edges of the subtropics.
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