Development and external validation of nomograms to predict the risk of skeletal metastasis at the time of diagnosis and skeletal metastasis-free survival in nasopharyngeal carcinoma

Autor: Lin Yang, Liangping Xia, Yan Wang, Shasha He, Haiyang Chen, Shaobo Liang, Peijian Peng, Shaodong Hong, Yong Chen
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2017
Předmět:
Zdroj: BMC Cancer, Vol 17, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2017)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 1471-2407
DOI: 10.1186/s12885-017-3630-9
Popis: Abstract Background The skeletal system is the most common site of distant metastasis in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC); various prognostic factors have been reported for skeletal metastasis, though most studies have focused on a single factor. We aimed to establish nomograms to effectively predict skeletal metastasis at initial diagnosis (SMAD) and skeletal metastasis-free survival (SMFS) in NPC. Methods A total of 2685 patients with NPC who received bone scintigraphy (BS) and/or 18F–deoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (18F–FDG PET/CT) and 2496 patients without skeletal metastasis were retrospectively assessed to develop individual nomograms for SMAD and SMFS. The models were validated externally using separate cohorts of 1329 and 1231 patients treated at two other institutions. Results Five independent prognostic factors were included in each nomogram. The SMAD nomogram had a significantly higher c-index than the TNM staging system (training cohort, P = 0.005; validation cohort, P
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