CMIP6 Models Rarely Simulate Antarctic Winter Sea‐Ice Anomalies as Large as Observed in 2023

Autor:	Rachel Diamond, Louise C. Sime, Caroline R. Holmes, David Schroeder
Jazyk:	angličtina
Rok vydání:	2024
Předmět:	Antarctica sea ice variability CMIP6 climate models Southern Ocean Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809
Zdroj:	Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 51, Iss 10, Pp n/a-n/a (2024)
Druh dokumentu:	article
ISSN:	1944-8007 0094-8276
DOI:	10.1029/2024GL109265
Popis:	Abstract In 2023, Antarctic sea‐ice extent (SIE) reached record lows, with winter SIE falling to 2.5Mkm2 below the satellite era average. With this multi‐model study, we investigate the occurrence of anomalies of this magnitude in latest‐generation global climate models. When these anomalies occur, SIE takes decades to recover: this indicates that SIE may transition to a new, lower, state over the next few decades. Under internal variability alone, models are extremely unlikely to simulate these anomalies, with return period >1000 years for most models. The only models with return period
Databáze:	Directory of Open Access Journals
Externí odkaz:	https://doaj.org/article/f42885fdbd524762906fb99aa17b7a1b Zobrazit plný text záznamu Plný text View record in DOAJ