Modelling the impact of prescribed global warming on runoff from headwater catchments of the Irrawaddy River and their implications for the water level regime of Loktak Lake, northeast India
| Autor: | C. R. Singh, J. R. Thompson, J. R. French, D. G. Kingston, A. W. Mackay |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2010 |
| Předmět: | |
| Zdroj: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol 14, Iss 9, Pp 1745-1765 (2010) |
| Druh dokumentu: | article |
| ISSN: | 1027-5606 1607-7938 |
| DOI: | 10.5194/hess-14-1745-2010 |
| Popis: | Climate change is likely to have major implications for wetland ecosystems, which will include altered water level regimes due to modifications in local and catchment hydrology. However, substantial uncertainty exists in the precise impacts of climate change on wetlands due in part to uncertainty in GCM projections. This paper explores the impacts of climate change upon river discharge within three sub-catchments of Loktak Lake, an internationally important wetland in northeast India. This is achieved by running pattern-scaled GCM output through distributed hydrological models (developed using MIKE SHE) of each sub-catchment. The impacts of climate change upon water levels within Loktak Lake are subsequently investigated using a water balance model. Two groups of climate change scenarios are investigated. Group 1 uses results from seven different GCMs for an increase in global mean temperature of 2 °C, the purported threshold of ''dangerous'' climate change, whilst Group 2 is based on results from the HadCM3 GCM for increases in global mean temperature between 1 °C and 6 °C. Results from the Group 1 scenarios show varying responses between the three sub-catchments. The majority of scenario-sub-catchment combinations (13 out of 21) indicate increases in discharge which vary from |
| Databáze: | Directory of Open Access Journals |
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