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Abstract Background Doctors and nurses play a fundamental role in maintaining global health systems and achieving universal health care coverage. However, significant shortages persist, and little is known about the popularity of these careers among young people in various economies or the relative impact of personal inputs and contextual factors. Methods Using data from the large-scale Programme of International Student Assessment (PISA) 2018, we showed the recent distribution of adolescents' medical (doctor) and nursing career expectations in 61 economies. With multilevel logistic and hierarchical linear regression, we examined the relative importance of economic indicators, health work conditions, and personal background factors in affecting adolescents' health career expectations. Results Approximately 11% of adolescents expected to be doctors in each economy, while only 2% expected to be nurses. Adolescents were attracted to health professions mainly by system-level favourable conditions (accounting for 1/3 variance), including (a) government health expenditure beyond that expected gross domestic product (GDP); (b) a safe working environment for doctors in wealthy nations; and (c) high salaries for nurses in less-developed economies. In contrast, adolescents' background (gender, social status, and academic ability) was less influential, explaining only 10% of the differences. Conclusions In the technological and digital era, high-ability students are equally competitive for emerging careers other than doctors and nurses. In developing countries, a high salary package and societal respect are enough to attract adolescents to nursing careers. In contrast, for developed countries, extra expenditures beyond regular GDP allocation and a safe work environment are crucial in attracting adolescents to become doctors. Salary may effectively attract international-trained doctors and nurses, but the work environment will likely emerge as an essential factor in retaining migrants in their positions. Trial registration number: No human participants were involved in this study. |
